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Rationale:
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This evidence review has been updated regularly with searches of the MEDLINE database. The most recent literature update was performed through July 13, 2025.
Analytic validity is the technical accuracy of a test in detecting a mutation that is present or in excluding a mutation that is absent.
Clinical validity reflects the diagnostic performance of a test (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values) in detecting clinical disease.
Clinical utility reflects how the results of a diagnostic test will be used to change management of the patient and whether these changes in management lead to clinically important improvements in health outcomes.
SUMMARY OF EVIDENCE
Initial Management Decision: Active Surveillance vs Therapeutic Intervention
For individuals who have clinically localized untreated prostate cancer who receive Prolaris, the evidence includes retrospective cohort studies of clinical validity using archived samples in patients of mixed risk categories. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. For the low-risk group, the ProtecT trial showed 99% 10-year disease-specific survival in mostly low-risk patients receiving active surveillance. The low mortality rate estimated with tight precision makes it unlikely that a test intended to identify a subgroup of low-risk men with a net benefit from immediate treatment instead of active surveillance would find such a group. For the intermediate-risk group, the evidence of improved clinical validity or prognostic accuracy for prostate cancer death using Prolaris Cell Cycle Progression score in patients managed conservatively after a needle biopsy has shown some improvement in areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve over clinicopathologic risk stratification tools.
For individuals who have clinically localized untreated prostate cancer who receive Oncotype DX Prostate, the evidence includes case-cohort and retrospective cohort studies of clinical validity using archived samples in patients of mixed risk categories, and a decision-curve analysis examining indirect evidence of clinical utility. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. Evidence for clinical validity and potential clinical utility of Oncotype DX Prostate in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer derives from a study predicting adverse pathology after RP. The validity of using tumor pathology as a surrogate for the risk of progression and cancer-specific death is unclear. It is also unclear whether results from an RP population can be generalized to an active surveillance population.
For individuals who have clinically localized untreated prostate cancer who receive Decipher Biopsy, the evidence includes retrospective cohort studies of clinical validity using archived samples in intermediate-risk patients and no studies of clinical utility. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. For intermediate-risk men, a test designed to identify men who can receive active surveillance instead of RP or RT would need to show very high NPV for disease-specific mortality at ten years and improvement in prediction compared with existing tools used to select such men. Clinical validity studies of Decipher Biopsy reported prostate cancer metastases at five years but did not report survival outcomes.
For individuals who have clinically localized untreated prostate cancer who receive the ProMark protein biomarker test, the evidence includes a retrospective cohort study of clinical validity using archived samples and no studies of clinical utility. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. Current evidence does not support improved outcomes with ProMark given that only a single clinical validity study is available.
For individuals who have clinically localized untreated prostate cancer who receive ArteraAI Prostate Test, the evidence includes 1meta-analysis and 5 retrospective analyses on archived samples from randomized clinical trials on prostate cancer patients of mixed risk categories to assess clinical validity and utility. Relevant outcomes include overall survival (OS), disease-specific survival, quality of life (QOL), and treatment-related morbidity. Evidence for clinical validity and potential clinical utility of ArteraAI Prostate Test in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer derives from a handful of studies comparing relevant outcomes against comparators like National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) and standard clinicopathologic risk-stratification tools. Multimodal artificial intelligence (MMAI) algorithms, that form the foundation of ArteraAI, have shown they can outperform comparators at prognosticating 10-year outcomes of interest (OS, distant metastasis [DM], biochemical failure [BF], and prostate cancer-specific survival [PCSS]). Additionally, MMAI was able to demonstrate it is predictive for ST-ADT and can determine if prostate cancer patients would have a better net health outcome on radiotherapy (RT) alone or RT plus short-term androgen deprivation therapy (ST-ADT). Limitations of these studies are synonymous with retrospective analysis, including but not limited to, clinical heterogeneity of study populations, variability in data recording, and different conditions under which measurements occurred, etc. No study reported management changes made in response to ArteraAI Prostate Test results, but current NCCN management algorithms recommend MMAI testing with ArteraAI for prostate cancer patients with NCCN intermediate-risk scores to indicate patients that should undergo ST-ADT regardless of RT dose or type. Moreover, NCCN notes that MMAI testing with ArteraAI may provide more accurate risk stratification to enable better management of cancer patients, however, it still remains unclear on how this could be used in clinical practice as specific MMAI cutoff values have not been published.
Management Decision After RP
For individuals who have localized prostate cancer treated with RP who receive Prolaris, the evidence includes retrospective cohort studies of clinical validity using archived samples. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. Evidence of improved clinical validity or prognostic accuracy for prostate cancer death using the Prolaris Cell Cycle Progression score in patients after prostatectomy has shown some improvement in areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve over clinicopathologic risk stratification tools.
For individuals who have localized prostate cancer who are treated with RP and who receive the Decipher prostate cancer classifier, the evidence includes a study of analytic validity, prospective and retrospective studies of clinical validity using overlapping archived samples, decision-curve analyses examining indirect evidence of clinical utility, and prospective decision-impact studies without pathology or clinical outcomes. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. The clinical validity of the Decipher genomic classifier has been evaluated in samples of patients with high-risk prostate cancer undergoing different interventions following RP. Studies reported some incremental improvement in discrimination. However, it is unclear whether there is consistently improved reclassification-particularly to higher risk categories-or whether the test could be used to predict which men will benefit from radiotherapy.
For individuals who have localized prostate cancer treated with RP who receive ArteraAI Prostate Test, the evidence includes 2retrospective cohort studies of clinical validity using archived samples. Relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. ArteraAI proved to be prognostic for RP-specific endpoints of BCR and adverse pathology (AP) given the statistically significant association. Disease-specific survival outcomes were reported in both studies and the evidence of clinical validity and prognostic accuracy for MMAI scores via ArteraAI testing in patients after RP demonstrated statistically improved prostate cancer specific mortality (PCSM) and OS when compared to standard clinicopathologic risk stratification tools. Limitations of these studies are synonymous with retrospective analysis, including but not limited to, clinical heterogeneity of study populations, variability in data recording, and different conditions under which measurements occurred, etc. No study reported management changes made in response to ArteraAI Prostate Test results. Overall, ArteraAI Prostate Test is validated for disease-specific outcomes for prostate cancer patients who underwent RP and can provide additional prognostic information that may guide postoperative management, but further studies are needed to determine if MMAI can be used to decide specific treatment regimens that improve health outcomes. The evidence is insufficient to determine that the technology results in an improvement in the net health outcome.
Management Decision in Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer
For individuals who have mCRPC who receive the Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nuclear Detect, the evidence includes one prospective cohort study, one retrospective cohort study of clinical validity using archived samples, and no studies of clinical utility. The relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. Current evidence does not support improved outcomes with Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nuclear Detect, given that only two clinical validity studies meeting inclusion criteria were available. The evidence is insufficient to determine the effects of the technology on health outcomes.
Management Decision in Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer
For individuals who have metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) who receive ArteraAI Prostate Test, the evidence includes 2 retrospective cohort studies of clinical validity using archived samples. Relevant outcomes include OS, disease-specific survival, QOL, and treatment-related morbidity. MMAI was able to estimate treatment effects and determine that MMAI high-risk mCRPC patients would derive benefit from metastasis-directed therapy (MDT) when compared to observation. Limitations of these studies are synonymous with retrospective analysis, including but not limited to, clinical heterogeneity of study populations, variability in data recording, and different conditions under which measurements occurred, etc. No study reported management changes made in response to ArteraAI Prostate Test results. Overall, ArteraAI Prostate Test is prognostic for mCSPC patients and has the potential to guide treatment management, but further studies are needed to determine if MMAI can be used to decide specific treatment regimens that improve net health outcomes. The evidence is insufficient to determine that the technology results in an improvement in the net health outcome.
ONGOING AND UNPUBLISHED CLINICAL TRIALS
A search of online site ClinicalTrials.gov registry identified several currently unpublished trials that might influence this policy.
PRACTICE GUIDELINES AND POSITION STATEMENTS
American Society of Clinical Onclology (ASCO)
In 2020, the American Society of Clinical Onclology (ASCO) published a guideline on molecular biomarkers in localized prostate cancer (Eggener et al, 2020). The guidelines state, "Currently, there are no strong data or expert guidelines to support active surveillance in otherwise healthy men with Grade Group 3 or higher cancer; therefore, we would consider the use of genomic biomarkers only in situations in which the assay result, when considered as a whole with routine clinical factors, is likely to affect a physician’s recommendation or a patient’s choice for surveillance versus treatment, but they should not be used routinely."
Specific recommendations included the following:
Molecular biomarkers to identify patients with prostate cancer who are most likely to benefit from active surveillance:
- Recommendation 1.1. Commercially available molecular biomarkers (i.e. Oncotype Dx Prostate, Prolaris, Decipher, and ProMark) may be offered in situations in which the assay result, when considered as a whole with routine clinical factors, is likely to affect management. Routine ordering of molecular biomarkers is not recommended (Type: Evidence based; Evidence quality: Intermediate; Strength of recommendation: Moderate).
- Recommendation 1.2. Any additional molecular biomarkers evaluated do not have sufficient data to be clinically actionable or are not commercially available and thus should not be offered (Type: Evidence based; Evidence quality: Insufficient; Strength of recommendation: Moderate).
Molecular biomarkers to diagnose clinically significant prostate cancer:
- Recommendation 2.1. Commercially available molecular biomarkers (i.e. Oncotype Dx Prostate, Prolaris, Decipher, and ProMark) may be offered in situations in which the assay result, when considered as a whole with routine clinical factors, is likely to affect management. Routine ordering of molecular biomarkers is not recommended (Type: Evidence based; Evidence quality: Intermediate; Recommendation: Moderate). Recommendation
- 2.2. Any additional molecular biomarkers evaluated do not have sufficient data to be clinically actionable or are not commercially available and thus should not be offered (Type: Evidence based; Evidence quality: Insufficient; Strength of recommendation: Moderate).
Molecular biomarkers to guide the decision of post prostatectomy adjuvant versus salvage radiation:
- Recommendation 3.1. The Expert Panel recommends consideration of a commercially available molecular biomarker (eg, Decipher Genomic Classifier) in situations in which the assay result, when considered as a whole with routine clinical factors, is likely to affect management. In the absence of prospective clinical trial data, routine use of genomic biomarkers in the postprostatectomy setting to determine adjuvant versus salvage radiation or to initiate systemic therapies should not be offered (Type: Evidence based; Evidence quality: Intermediate; Strength of recommendation: Moderate).
- Recommendation 3.2. Any additional molecular biomarkers evaluated do not have sufficient data to be clinically actionable or are not commercially available and thus should not be offered (Type: Evidence based; Evidence quality: Insufficient; Strength of recommendation: Moderate).
American Urological Association and American Society for Radiation Oncology
The American Urological Association and American Society for Radiation Oncology published guidelines on clinically localized prostate cancer (Eastham et al, 2022).
The guidelines included the following statements on risk assessment:
- "Clinicians should use clinical T stage, serum PSA, Grade Group (Gleason score), and tumor volume on biopsy to risk stratify patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer.(Strong Recommendation; Evidence Level: Grade B)"
- "Clinicians may selectively use tissue-based genomic biomarkers when added risk stratification may alter clinical decision-making. (Expert Opinion)"
- "Clinicians should not routinely use tissue-based genomic biomarkers for risk stratification or clinical decision-making. (Moderate Recommendation; Evidence Level: Grade B)"
In 2018, the American Urological Association published guidelines for castration-resistant prostate
Cancer (Lowrance et al, 2018). The guidelines do not mention AR-V7 assays.
National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN)
The National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for prostate cancer (v.2025) provide a table of tissue-based tests for prostate cancer prognosis.
Guidelines are updated frequently; refer to the source document for current recommendations. The most recent guidelines (v.1.2025) include the following recommendations and statements related to risk-stratification and testing for biomarkers:
22-gene genomic classifier (GC) (Decipher)
- "RT alone may be considered for patients with a low GC score and NCCN intermediate-risk disease"
- "The addition of ST-ADT should be considered for patients with a high GC score given their increased risk of DM and significant benefit of ST-ADT on DM, irrespective of RT dose or brachytherapy boost"
- "Patients with a GC low-risk score should be counseled that the absolute benefit of LT-ADT over ST-ADT is smaller than forpatients with GC high-risk scores and when accounting for patient age, comorbidities, and patient preferences, it may be reasonable with shared decision-making to use a duration shorter than LT-ADT"
- "For patients with node-negative disease post-RP planned for early secondary RT (PSA = 0.5 ng/mL) with GC low or intermediate risk, use of RT alone should be considered"
- "For patients planned for early secondary RT with a GC high-risk tumor, use of secondary RT with ADT is recommended"
ArteraAI Prostate Test
- Patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer planning to receive RT, those with biomarker-positive disease, and especially those with unfavorable intermediate-risk disease, should be recommended for the addition of ST-ADT regardless of RT dose or type, notwithstanding contraindications to ADT. Those with biomarker (-) tumors, especially tumors with more favorable prognostic risk, may consider the use of RT alone
- "Specific MMAI cut points have not been published to date to precisely guide specific treatment decisions. Rather, the test maybe used to provide more accurate risk stratification to enable improved shared decision-making"
The discussion section in the guidelines, which is pending update as of April 2024 include the following statements related to risk stratification:
- Patients with low or favorable intermediate-risk disease and life expectancy greater than or equal to 10 years may consider the use of Decipher, Oncotype DX Prostate, or Prolaris during initial risk stratification.
- Patients with unfavorable intermediate- and high-risk disease and life expectancy greater than or equal to 10 years may consider the use of Decipher or Prolaris.
- Decipher may be considered to inform adjuvant treatment if adverse features are found after radical prostatectomy and during workup for radical prostatectomy PSA persistence or recurrence (NCCN category 2A; Simon et al [2019] category 2B)
The panel also stated that "the use of AR-V7 tests in circulating tumor cells can be considered to help guide selection of therapy in the post-abiraterone/enzalutamide metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer setting."
Of note, in the April 2024 version of the NCCN guideline, the following footnotes were noted to be removed, but the related discussion sections are still pending update:
- "Decipher molecular assay should be considered if not previously performed to inform adjuvant treatment if adverse features are found post- RP."
- "Consider AR-V7 testing to help guide selection of therapy."
National Institute for Health and Care Excellence
In 2019, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence updated its guidance on the diagnosis and management of prostate cancer. The guidance did not address gene expression profile testing.
U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendations
Not applicable.
REGULATORY STATUS
Clinical laboratories may develop and validate tests in-house and market them as a laboratory service; laboratory-developed tests must meet the general regulatory standards of the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA). Prolaris® (Myriad Genetics), Oncotype DX® Prostate and Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nuclear Detect (Genomic Health), Decipher gene expression profiling test (DecipherCorp), and
the ProMark™ protein biomarker test (Metamark Genetics), and Artera® Prostate Test are available under the auspices ofthe CLIA. Laboratories that offer laboratory-developed tests must be licensed by the CLIA for high-complexity testing. To date, the U.S.Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has chosen not to require any regulatory review of these tests.
In November 2015, the FDA’s Office of Public Health Strategy and Analysis published a document on public health evidence for FDA oversight of LDTs. The FDA argued that many tests need more FDA oversight than the regulatory requirements of the CLIA. The CLIA standards relate to laboratory operations but do not address inaccuracies or unreliability of specific tests. Prolaris is among the 20 case studies in the document cited as needing FDA oversight. The report asserted that patients are potentially receiving inappropriate prostate cancer care because there is no evidence that results from the test meaningfully improve clinical outcomes.
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